منابع مشابه
Asymptotic utilitarianism in scoring rules
Given a large enough population of voters whose utility functions satisfy certain statistical regularities, we show that voting rules such as the Borda rule, approval voting, and evaluative voting have a very high probability of selecting the social alternative which maximizes the utilitarian social welfare function. We also characterize the speed with which this probability approaches one as t...
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This paper presents a novel scoring rule-based strictly dominant incentive compatible mechanism that encourages agents to produce costly estimates of future events and report them truthfully to a centre. Whereas prior work has assumed a fixed budget for payment towards agents, this work makes use of prior information held by the centre and assumes a budget that is determined by the savings made...
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BACKGROUND The Taiwan CDC relied on the historical average number of disease cases or rate (AVG) to depict the trend of epidemic diseases in Taiwan. By comparing the historical average data with prediction markets, we show that the latter have a better prediction capability than the former. Given the volatility of the infectious diseases in Taiwan, historical average is unlikely to be an effect...
متن کاملPrice Evolution in a Continuous Double Auction Prediction Market With a Scoring-Rule Based Market Maker
The logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR), the most common automated market making rule for prediction markets, is typically studied in the framework of dealer markets, where the market maker takes one side of every transaction. The continuous double auction (CDA) is a much more widely used microstructure for general financial markets in practice. In this paper, we study the properties of CDA ...
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In the evaluation of experiments often the problem arises of how to compare the predictive success of competing probabilistic theories. The quadratic scoring rule can be used for this purpose. Originally, this rule was proposed as an incentive compatible elicitation method for probabilistic expert judgments. It is shown that up to a positive linear transformation, the quadratic scoring rule is ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Electronic Journal of Statistics
سال: 2018
ISSN: 1935-7524
DOI: 10.1214/18-ejs1454